Answer to question a :
Forecast for July
= 0.5 x Demand – June + 0.3 x Demand-May + 0.2 x Demand-April
= 0.5 x 16 + 0.3 x 17 + 0.2 x 13
= 8 + 5.1 + 2.6
|JULY FORECAST = 15.7|
Answer to question b:
Forecast for July
= ( Demand for June + Demand for May + Demand for April ) / 3
= ( 16 + 17 + 13 ) / 3
|JULY FORECAST = 15.3|
Answer to Question C :
Equation for single exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = alpha = 0.2 will be :
Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1
= 0.2xAt-1 + 0.8xFt-1
Ft = Forecast for period t
Ft-1 = Forecast for period t-1
At-1 = Actual demand for period t-1
Therefore forecast for July, Ft
= 0.2 x Demand for June + 0.8 x Forecast for June
= 0.2 x 16 + 0.8 x 14
= 3.2 + 11.2
|JULY FORECAST = 14.4|
Answer to question D :
Let the regression equation be :
Y = a + b.t
T = month number ( e.g 1 for January, 2 for February , 3 for March etc )
Y = Forecasted Demand ( Dependent variable )
A, b = constants
Now, putting the values of t as well as actual values of demand in two separate adjacent columns in excel and applying the formula LINEST ( ) , we get following values for a and b :
A = 11.8
B = 0.77
Y = 11.8 + 0.77.t
|Y = 11.8 + 0.77.T|
Answer to question E :
To find out forecast for July, we need to put value of t as t= 7
Forecast for July = 11.8 + 0.77 x 7 = 11.8 + 5.39 = 17.19
|JULY FORECAST = 17.19|
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