(Solved): Hello I have these questions from my OPMA class please help i do need how you
Hello I have these questions from my OPMA class please help i do need how you get the calculations so i can do well on the test 
Historical demand for a product is: DEMAND January13 February 12 March April May June 13 16 a. Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 (June), 0.30 (May), and 0.20 April), find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) July forecast n/r b. Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) July forecast n/r c. Using single exponential smoothing with α 0.20 and a June forecasts 14, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) July forecast d. Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your intercept value to 1 decimal place and slope value to 2 decimal places.) e. Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) July forecast n/r。
Expert Answer
Answer to question a :
Forecast for July
= 0.5 x Demand – June + 0.3 x Demand-May + 0.2 x Demand-April
= 0.5 x 16 + 0.3 x 17 + 0.2 x 13
= 8 + 5.1 + 2.6
= 15.7
| JULY FORECAST = 15.7 |
Answer to question b:
Forecast for July
= ( Demand for June + Demand for May + Demand for April ) / 3
= ( 16 + 17 + 13 ) / 3
= 46/3
= 15.3
| JULY FORECAST = 15.3 |
Answer to Question C :
Equation for single exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = alpha = 0.2 will be :
Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1
= 0.2xAt-1 + 0.8xFt-1
Ft = Forecast for period t
Ft-1 = Forecast for period t-1
At-1 = Actual demand for period t-1
Therefore forecast for July, Ft
= 0.2 x Demand for June + 0.8 x Forecast for June
= 0.2 x 16 + 0.8 x 14
= 3.2 + 11.2
= 14.4
| JULY FORECAST = 14.4 |
Answer to question D :
Let the regression equation be :
Y = a + b.t
Where,
T = month number ( e.g 1 for January, 2 for February , 3 for March etc )
Y = Forecasted Demand ( Dependent variable )
A, b = constants
Now, putting the values of t as well as actual values of demand in two separate adjacent columns in excel and applying the formula LINEST ( ) , we get following values for a and b :
A = 11.8
B = 0.77
Therefore ,
Y = 11.8 + 0.77.t
| Y = 11.8 + 0.77.T |
Answer to question E :
To find out forecast for July, we need to put value of t as t= 7
Thus ,
Forecast for July = 11.8 + 0.77 x 7 = 11.8 + 5.39 = 17.19
| JULY FORECAST = 17.19 |
